Guessing Game

Who can figure out this Real Estate market? I am seeing houses in this town sell for anywhere between $350 and $650 per square foot, and I cannot fully understand what accounts for that spread. It appears as though brand new homes are still able to command a premium, up to a certain square footage at which there are diminishing returns, meaning the price per square foot begins to slide because people do not want or need the excess space the home offers. Updated older homes that exude charm are also in demand, unless they are in a poor location. Friends just bought a lovely remodeled 1960’s home in a nice neighborhood on a flat ¼ acre lot for $360/sf. Granted, the street is a double yellow cut through between two busy roads, but it is generally a quiet neighborhood nonetheless. A tired but cute Cape Cod with deeded water access and a somewhat funky layout (MBR on ground floor, garage access though MBR sitting room, etc.) just sold for $400/sf. But a brand new house with a small (.11 acre) lot on a main road is in contract for somewhere in the neighborhood of $550/sf.

It comes down to this: there are not a lot of buyers out there, and those who are looking want value. If a house needs work, they want a discount. And so, our offer of over $425/sf for the house on our street was actually high. I keep thinking it is worth closer to $400/sf, but then the sales come through and begin to make me think otherwise. We wonder when they will come back to us, although my husband suspects that it would be too difficult for them to admit they were wrong. Of course, we would admit we were wrong too, and lower our offer. That should go over REALLY well. We are still hearing about “quiet layoffs” all around the New York area, and if the trend continues, Real Estate as a lagging indicator of the economy could continue to slide. No one can predict the bottom of the market – it is a guessing game. My guess is that the Real Estate market will keep us guessing!